Are attacks on Syrian opposition signal from Moscow to Ankara?
As Turkey conducts simultaneous campaigns in different theaters — including assistance to Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict — Moscow must be tempted to exploit the turbulence to extract concessions from Ankara.
Recent attacks on the Syrian opposition forces in the heart of territories overseen by Turkey have raised questions about how sustainable the current status quo along the lines of contact really is.
The current relative stability is primarily the result of the actions of the Turkish military, recorded at the talks between Putin and Erdogan, and the result of cooperation within the Astana format or the Adana Accord, which Moscow brought up to avoid uncomfortable questions about Turkish influence in Syria.
As Turkey conducts simultaneous campaigns in different theaters — including Ankara’s assistance to Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict — Moscow is tempted to exploit the turbulence to extract concessions from Ankara. Meanwhile, it is not unfathomable that a third player in Damascus will look to benefit from the turbulence.
On Oct. 23, oil and fuel tankers in the city of Jarablus on the Turkish border were hit by mysterious strikes. According to one account, the tankers were shipping oil for sale from the territories controlled by the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF). Russian military blogs suggested the perpetrators were either the Russians or the Syrians. The strike might have come from the Syrian army’s military aircraft with an air-to-surface missile or from land-based Tochka or Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile systems. The attack might also have been carried out by the Iskander-M system from the Russian-controlled Khmeimim Air Base or using ship-based Kalibr missiles. As the ensuing fire burned an entire night, local residents and activists were unable to collect evidence and take photos of the wreckage.
