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Turkey’s withdrawal in Idlib may be omen of war

Turkey’s decision to evacuate military posts in regime-held areas in Idlib is hardly reassuring when considered against the backdrop of its continued military buildup elsewhere in the region.

A Turkish military convoy drives through the village of Iblin, near Ariha in Syria's rebel-held northwestern Idlib province on October 20, 2020 after vacating the Morek post in Hama's countryside. - Turkey started withdrawing from one of its largest outposts in northwest Syria encircled for the past year by Syrian regime forces, a war monitor and a pro-Ankara rebel commander said. The outpost in Morek is Turkey's largest in the northwest province of Hama, which is now mostly under Syrian government control.
A Turkish military convoy drives through the village of Iblin, near Ariha in Syria's rebel-held northwestern Idlib province on Oct. 20, 2020, after vacating the Morek post in Hama's countryside. — OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP via Getty Images

Turkey has begun withdrawing from military observation posts in regime-held enclaves in Idlib, the last rebel stronghold in Syria, but the move looks more like an omen of war for the region than a sign of reconciliation and retreat. 

The outpost at Morek, one of several encircled by Syrian government forces since their capture of the key M5 highway in February, was evacuated Oct. 19-20, with others expected to follow suit. 

Turkey has been under growing Russian pressure to leave the surrounded outposts. Most recently, the issue was raised at Sept. 16 military talks in Ankara, with the Russian side pressing for Turkey to leave the outposts, reduce its military presence elsewhere, remove its heavy weapons from the region and push armed groups away from the M4 highway, the other key road in Idlib. Simultaneously, local protesters — reportedly mobilized by the Syrian government — held demonstrations around seven of Turkey’s 12 observation posts, urging the Turkish troops to leave.

In another sign of mounting pressure on Ankara, Turkish soldiers were targeted at Marj al-Zohour in late August and Mutaram in early September. 

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