What’s next for Turkey in Libya after election of new interim leaders?
Universal goodwill messages to Libya’s new interim leadership indicate how complex the Libyan file has become for all foreign actors in the country ahead of potentially clamorous elections in December.
The outcome of the UN-sponsored vote on new interim authorities in conflict-torn Libya seems to preclude any discussion of clear winners and losers, and anyone who believes that it fully safeguards Turkey’s interests might be making a premature conclusion.
A slate including head of the eastern-based parliament Aguila Saleh and Interior Minister of the outgoing Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) Fathi Bashagha was widely expected to win the Feb. 5 vote at the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, being an option that reflected the balance of power between the opposing parties on the ground. Egypt and Russia had raised Saleh’s profile as an alternative to eastern warlord Khalifa Hifter, and Saleh’s interim leadership would have been acceptable to Ankara, with Bashagha guaranteeing the protection of Turkish interests as prime minister. Eventually, another group of candidates won the vote, assuming the critical mission of taking Libya to national elections on Dec. 24.
Mohammed al-Menfi and Abdulhamid Dbeibeh, nominated respectively as head of the three-man presidency council and prime minister, have raised no serious concerns among any of the rival parties. Both figures are seen as blank pages that each party hopes to fill in line with its interests.
Everyone, including Ankara, appears happy with the surprise outcome. Ankara is ostensibly free of concern that the new leaders might undermine its military presence in Libya and the deals it has struck with the Tripoli-based GNA, which it backed in the war against the Hifter-led eastern forces.
