The general Palestinian legislative elections due to take place May 22 has shaken up the still internal Palestinian waters. While different polls are predicting that the Fatah movement is getting slightly more votes than any other party, after 15 years without general elections and 1 million new voters, no poll can be truly trusted to reflect what will come out at the ballot boxes.

While many, including leaders of regional countries and the international community, are worried about the repeat of the 2006 elections, it is important to note that the Palestinian election’s law was changed by presidential decree in September 2007 from a combined national and regional vote to a single national vote based on the proportional system. Had the current law existed in 2006 Hamas would not have been able to monopolize the power that had caused the Gaza-West Bank split.

After years of deadlock, the current elections are a result of a political breakthrough championed by two former cellmates — Jibril Rajoub, who is now the secretary of the Fatah movement, and Saleh Aruri, deputy head of the Hamas political bureau.

The breakthrough was translated in an exchange of messages between Fatah and Hamas in which the latter accepted the insistence of Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas to hold elections consecutively and not concurrently. The reason for Hamas agreeing to the insistence of President Abbas was due to their own internal decision not to compete for the office of president. They had come to that conclusion due to their understanding that neither regional nor international powers would tolerate that. Having reached that conclusion, it made little difference in whether legislative and presidential elections take place at the same time or at different times.