What started out in total silence, deep under the radar or the sea, is fast becoming a violent, dangerous clash attracting wide media coverage. Israel and Iran are lifting the veil over their military conflict and no one seems overly troubled. On the contrary. A day after an April 6 Red Sea attack attributed to Israel’s naval commando on the Iranian military vessel the MV Saviz, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made this amazing declaration at a ceremony marking Holocaust Remembrance Day: “To our good friends as well, I say, 'The deal with Iran that poses and threatens our destruction will not obligate us.'” History, Netanyahu added, has taught Israel that such agreements are worthless. “There is only one thing that we will be committed to: deterring all those who wish to annihilate us from achieving their goal," he warned.
This week’s fast-moving events were nothing short of dramatic. Hours after the attack, US Special Envoy Robert Malley arrived in Vienna for the start of indirect European-mediated talks with Iran on reinstating the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Also on the same day, the first Emirati ambassador to Israel, Mohamed Al Khaja, took up his post in Tel Aviv. That evening, Netanyahu informed Israel’s most important ally — the United States — that as far as he was concerned, the Vienna talks were irrelevant and Israel does not intend to abide by any agreement reached.
Israeli analysts describe the last development in the shadow war between Iran and Israel as a “controlled escalation,” meaning the sides are upping the ante but making sure not to lose control and deteriorate into an all-out war. “The problem is that the ability to control deterioration is limited and you could find yourself deep inside a war at any given moment, without meaning to go there,” a senior Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.
Events are further complicated by Israel’s crisis of governance and unprecedented political chaos. The government is barely functioning, Defense Minister Benny Gantz is barely talking to Netanyahu, who is himself entangled in a widely publicized criminal trial. The security Cabinet is rarely convened, decisions are made in ad-hoc or strange forums, and many Israelis fear that Israel could find itself embroiled at some point in open warfare that it did not want.
AL-MONITOR All-Access gives you unlimited access to all our journalism, the full Daily Briefing, exclusive interviews, premium newsletters, and live events — for less than $2/week.
