Saudi Arabia’s race for Gulf economic leadership takes to the sky

Saudi Arabia plans to launch a second national airline “as soon as possible” to catapult the country into the fifth rank globally in air transit traffic, increase air connectivity to reach more than 250 destinations, and go head-to-head with flag carriers Emirates and Qatar Airways.

“It’s good for us. More competition means more job availability and better salaries,” said a pilot employed by a competing airline. But industry analysts remain skeptical. “It is simply too late; they have missed the boat," said Alex Macheras, a UK-based aviation analyst. He told Al-Monitor, “There is no need for another airline to replicate what Qatar Airways and Emirates have already achieved in terms of being the global super-connector airlines.”

Indeed, the Qatari and Emirati flag carriers dominate the East-West transit market — when a passenger stops at an air hub en route to a destination — and Dubai International Airport holds the crown as the world's busiest international airport for the seventh straight year.

The risk of a lack of competitive advantage is not the only challenge that awaits Riyadh. The aviation industry suffered its "worst year in history" as the COVID-19 pandemic decimated demand for long-haul travel. Emirates Group reported its first nonprofitable year in over three decades, and demand for international travel in the Middle East was still 81% lower in May 2021 than in May 2019, the International Air Transport Association reported.

Launching a carrier targeting long-haul travel in such market conditions is “a strange choice of timing,” said Robert Kokonis, president of Canada-based global aviation advisory AirTrav.

Some US and international passengers who are sensitive to human rights issues might avoid or boycott the airline because of the murder of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 by Saudi operatives.