Israeli intelligence had long given up on Afghanistan. When President Donald Trump declared that US troops would withdraw by May 2021, no one in Israel entertained hopes of a change in policy under a Democratic administration. When President Joe Biden announced a final US pullout from the war-torn country, assessments differed on how long it would take the Taliban to crush the modern Afghan state envisioned by the United States and its allies. “It will not take three months and not even one month,” a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor several weeks ago on condition of anonymity. “It will happen much faster.” But even he probably did not believe that it could take the Taliban only hours to take over Afghanistan.

Israel has experience with such situations. The departure of its troops from Lebanon in May 2000 was planned as an orderly pullout over several days. It turned into a rushed flight of Israeli forces as the Israeli-supported South Lebanon Army, armed and trained by the United States like the Afghan military, fell apart within hours on live television, making way for the Islamist Hezbollah movement to seize control. A similar situation occurred in Gaza some 15 years ago, with Hamas overtaking the Strip, routing the far bigger and better armed Fatah force of Mohammed Dahlan that had controlled the enclave since the Oslo Accords. “One should not count heads or rifle barrels,” the late Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said at the time. “What counts is willingness to die for a cause. The Hamasniks are determined, Dahlan’s people are not. That’s the story in a nutshell.”

Israel's intelligence agencies clearly envisioned a Judgment Day scenario in terms of US deterrence in the Middle East in general and Iran in particular. But other voices are also emerging in Israel.

“It’s possible to leverage events there in our favor,” a former senior Israeli intelligence source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “I think that the shock experienced by Biden and his people, the harsh public reaction in the US and in the international media could have the opposite effect now, similar to a pendulum effect. The humiliating surrender to the Taliban could actually lead Biden to toughen up and decide to flex US muscle toward Iran, given the threat it poses to world peace and not just to the lives of local citizens.”