The Takeaway: Sudan’s fragile economic stability at risk after military takeover
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Hot Take: US rallies partners to restore civilian rule to Sudan
The Biden administration had hoped Sudan, a pivotal country of 44 million in the Horn of Africa, was on a steady if bumpy road to elections and economic reform. That’s all in jeopardy now after the military ousted civilian leaders in a coup on Oct. 25. The US State Department has put the junta on notice that the recent turnaround in relations, as well as economic assistance, is in jeopardy unless and until civilian rule is restored.
Military rejects "coup" accusation. Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan, the head of Sudan’s armed forces, said that although the civilian-led transitional government had been dissolved, national elections would proceed as planned in July 2023 and a new prime minister and technocratic government will be appointed to replace Abdalla Hamdok, who was ousted and placed under house arrest. Burhan claimed that the military actions did not constitute a coup but were a necessary step to avoid civil conflict. “The dangers we witnessed last week could have led the country into civil war,” he said, seemingly alleging that demonstrations over the past week may have been engineered for overthrow. Clashes between security forces and protesters have so far led to eight dead and 154 wounded.
For more background and the warning signs leading up to the military takeover, see last week’s Week in Review column here.
US turns up pressure. The Biden administration is making aid to Sudan contingent on adherence to both the Sudan Constitutional Declaration (August 2019) and the Juba Peace Agreement (October 2020), which laid out the country’s planned transition to civilian rule. Since the military stepped in, Washington has suspended $700 million in economic assistance and the World Bank has paused all disbursements to Sudan. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been working the phones to rally US partners with influence in Sudan — including the Democratic Republic of Congo (which holds the presidency of the African Union) and Saudi Arabia — to help get Sudan’s transition back on track. US Horn of Africa Envoy Jeffrey Feltman was in Sudan days before the coup.
