CAIRO — Nine ethnic groups formed a united front Nov. 5 to overthrow Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed government in what raises questions about the possible scenarios that could unfold, as internal tensions linger due to the regional conflict between Ethiopia on the one hand and Egypt and Sudan on the other over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

The conflict, which started a year ago between Ahmed’s regime in Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), turned into a direct clash after other rebel fronts joined the TPLF in order to bring down Ahmed. The TPLF fighters and the Oromo Liberation Army are now stationed dozens of kilometers from the capital, Addis Ababa, which puts Ahmed’s regime in a political and security stalemate as the government tries to harness all financial and military capabilities to keep things under its control.

Observers of African political affairs believe that the ongoing tension and conflict in Ethiopia infer that a number of scenarios lie in store for the regional dispute over the GERD and the stalled path of negotiations sponsored by the African Union.

Hani Raslan, an expert on African affairs at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, told Al-Monitor, “As long as Ethiopia does not have an independent authority agreed upon by the different nationalities, it would be impossible for a project such as the GERD to go on, especially considering that this is a project that the Ethiopian people polarize upon. After all, the government needs support for its efforts to continue building the dam as a national project.”