Israel conducted a Home Front Command exercise Nov. 3 to test its readiness for all-out war with Hezbollah. Based on intelligence evaluations of Hezbollah capabilities, hundreds or thousands of rockets could be fired on Israel by Hezbollah over days or weeks. Most would be short range but some could reach anywhere in Israel. Simultaneously, rocket fire could begin from the Gaza Strip and perhaps even Syria, Hezbollah’s elite fighters could try to infiltrate Israeli communities and army outposts and riots could break out in the West Bank.

The likelihood of an all-out war of this type is low but not zero. Lebanon is currently in one of the most severe crises in its history, significantly lowering the odds that the Hezbollah will initiate fighting. On the other hand, we know from experience that Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah could change his mind at any minute and start a war just to unite his ranks in Lebanon against an external enemy.

There is also a chance that war between Israel and Hezbollah could break out not due to a conscious decision by one of the sides, but as a result of multiplying skirmishes that get out of hand and force escalation. Several such events have taken place in recent years that could have developed into extensive confrontations, but were avoided by mutual deterrence mechanisms on both sides.

It is clear, however, that despite the relative quiet on the borders, both Hezbollah and Israel have been arming themselves for the last 15 years. As time goes on, the odds increase of an escalation that could be short or spark several days of fighting. It is very difficult to anticipate the dynamics that would be created, and the sides could find themselves in an unplanned and widespread war similar to the fighting in 2006.