Much has been written in recent months regarding the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran.  On Dec. 2, Mossad Chief David Barnea was quoted as saying, "Iran will not have nuclear weapons – not in the coming years, not ever. This is my personal commitment. This is the Mossad’s commitment." On Dec. 18, Defense Minister Benny Gantz said that he had notified the Biden administration that he had instructed the IDF to prepare for a strike against Iran.

On the other hand, in a Dec. 18 report by the New York Times, senior Israeli officials estimated that right now, the IDF does not have the capacity to attack the nuclear facilities in Iran. Judging by other publications, the reports are rather accurate. Israel does have a basic ability to attack in Iran even today, but with less effect, and it’s reasonable to assume, with many casualties.

Israel was better prepared at the beginning of the last decade, but with the signing of Iran's nuclear agreement in 2015, Israel decided to divert resources to other burning security issues, such as preparing to fight Hezbollah in the North. The assumption was that as long as the nuclear agreement was in force, Iran would not outright violate it, and an Israeli military action wouldn’t be necessary.   

In 2018, when the United States, led by President Donald Trump, left the nuclear agreement, the Israeli military establishment assumed that the “maximum pressure” campaign Trump enacted toward Iran would work. Even in 2019, when Iran restarted its race to a bomb, no one in Israel directed a change in policy. When Joe Biden took office, Israel found it hard to believe that the administration would decide to remove sanctions from Iran before it signs a renewed nuclear deal. It now appears that this approach actually allowed Iran to race to enrich uranium.