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Analysis

Netanyahu unlikely to upset US ties over Iran, Lebanon 

Lion's Den fighters shift attacks from Nablus to Hebron; Palestinian startups get warm welcome in Dubai. 

Israel election
A Palestinian man reads the headlines of a local newspaper featuring the Israeli elections as he waits at a watch repair shop in the occupied West Bank city of Hebron, on Nov. 2, 2022. — HAZEM BADER/AFP via Getty Images

Netanyahu will avoid US backlash on Iran, Lebanon 

Even if Benjamin Netanyahu succeeds in forming what may be the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, he is unlikely to unravel either the Israel-Lebanon gas deal or the US-Israel consensus on dealing with Iran. 

The governing coalition that Netanyahu is likely to form will hold him hostage to the extremist Knesset members Bezalel Smotrich, chair of the Religious Zionism party, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, chair of the Jewish Power party. The two provide 14 seats toward the required 61 (out of 120) needed to form a government. With Jewish Power in his coalition, Netanyahu has 64 seats to work with. 

“Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are expected to become senior ministers in Netanyahu’s government and even to serve in his security Cabinet,” writes Mazal Mualem. “Given their party’s size, they will also receive another two ministers at least. Netanyahu will need to find portfolios for them that do not cause too many problems with the international community and especially with the United States.” 

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