Gaza war tests Arab Gulf influence as GCC tries to avert regional escalation
Although the UAE and Bahrain have formal diplomatic relations with Israel, and Saudi Arabia was considering such a move, Arab states in the region have their own reasons to be cautious.
As Israel’s offensive in Gaza grinds on, World War III in the Middle East has not yet erupted. Iran’s allies have exercised relative restraint, and nobody has a desire to fully escalate. However, a single misstep could spark a broader conflagration.
Already, the Houthis launched a barrage of ballistic missiles and drones that appear to be targeting Israel. Also, Iran-backed allies in both Syria and Iraq have claimed attacks on US positions there.
However, the current crisis unfolds in a region that has recently elevated diplomacy. In the Abraham Accords, the UAE and Bahrain reached agreements with Israel in 2020. Saudi Arabia was considering normalizing relations with Israel, contingent upon a US defense pact and a civilian nuclear program. This year, long-time adversaries Saudi Arabia and Iran re-established diplomatic ties following a China-brokered agreement. Discussions between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis are under way to resolve an eight-year conflict in Yemen. In 2021, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt ended the blockade of Qatar, restoring diplomatic relations. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has expressed willingness to mediate ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Sudan.
Limited influence
