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Analysis

Israel unlikely to heed ICJ on Rafah halt, prepares for diplomatic fallout

Israel is unlikely to withdraw its forces from Rafah despite concerns within the political and military establishment over the country's growing international isolation.

ICJ
(From L) Yaron Wax, deputy head of mission for the Israeli Embassy in the Netherlands, British lawyer and member of Israel's legal team, Malcom Shaw KC and member of Israel's legal team Avigail Frisch Ben Avraham attend a hearing at the International Court of Justice as part of South Africa's request on a Gaza cease-fire in The Hague, on May 24, 2024. — NICK GAMMON/AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — There are already indications that Israel is unlikely to abide by a decision issued by the International Court of Justice in The Hague Friday, ordering it to halt its military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. The Israeli government, it seems, believes it still has room to maneuver.

South Africa had asked the ICJ to order a complete cessation of hostilities in the Palestinian enclave. The court agreed with Pretoria that the humanitarian situation there has become catastrophic, but stopped short of embracing its demand in full, leaving Israel with a small opening.

"Israel can argue that since much of the population that crowded into Rafah has evacuated relatively quickly, and that the force it employs in Rafah is not on the scale that was deployed throughout the Gaza Strip at the beginning of the war, the actions should not affect the civilian population," an Israeli legal source told Al-Monitor, speaking on the condition of anonymity. 

Military operations state of play 

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