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Analysis

With Sinwar gone, will Israel and Iran settle for deal in Gaza, Lebanon?

While some argue leveraging the Hamas leader's death to end the Gaza war and obtain the hostages' release, the Israeli prime minister may now have even bigger plans — for Lebanon and Iran.

A woman walks past destroyed buildings in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip amid the ongoing war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in the besieged Palestinian territory, October 17, 2024.
A woman walks past destroyed buildings in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip amid the ongoing war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in the besieged Palestinian territory, October 17, 2024. — BASHAR TALEB/AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — The culmination on Oct. 17 of Israel’s yearlong hunt for its most wanted enemy, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, proved anticlimactic in some respects, but the consequences of his killing hold the potential to affect not only the war in Gaza, but also Israel's ground operation in Lebanon and its anticipated attack on Iran.

The drama to Sinwar's killing in a bombed-out home in southern Gaza lies in its aftermath, specifically in the fate of the 101 hostages being held by Hamas in tunnels under Gaza, and their remains, as many are believed to be dead. Sinwar’s death has raised hopes of a breakthrough in the stalled attempts to obtain their release, but at the same time has generated new fears. 

In a televised address Thursday night, Prime Minister Netanyahu promised those holding the hostages that they would not be harmed if they laid down their arms and freed the captives. The families of the hostages are urging the government to offer monetary rewards for information on the location of their loved ones while expressing concern that those holding them will avenge Sinwar’s killing by murdering them.

According to Israeli intelligence officials, Israel believes Hamas will choose Sinwar's brother, Mohammad Sinwar, as his successor. Mohammad, they say, is even more extreme than his brother. 

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