Turkey could benefit from rebel offensive in Syria: experts

Turkey could be one of the big winners from the new Syria crisis, giving it a chance to tackle its Syrian refugee problem and the Kurdish threat along its border, observers say.

Although Syrian President Bashar al-Assad spurned an offer of help from his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ankara now appears to have an increasingly important role in decisions that will affect Syria's immediate future.

- What role did Turkey play in the new rebel offensive?

Omer Ozkizilcik, an Atlantic Council associate researcher in Ankara, said Turkey has a "complex and difficult relationship" with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the jihadist alliance that led last week's rebel offensive.

"We can clearly say there was indirect Turkish support (for the offensive) but no direct Turkish involvement," he told AFP.

Although the attack was due to take place "seven weeks ago... Turkey stopped the rebels from launching this military offensive," he added.

Assad's ally Russia has also been "heavily" bombing rebel positions in the northwest to stymie an attack on his government.

Charles Lister, an expert at Washington's Middle East Institute agreed, saying "the Aleppo offensive was initially planned for mid-October but Turkey put a stop to it".

It was only after Ankara's efforts to normalise ties with the Assad regime were rebuffed as it pushed for a political solution, that Turkey gave its green light, Ozkizilcik said.

- What relationship does Turkey have with HTS? -

Turkey has pushed back against the expansion of HTS into the "security zone" in northwest Syria it has carved out for itself, and has put pressure on the radical Islamist group to drop its Al-Qaeda affiliation.

It has also pressed it to avoid attacking Christian and Druze minorities, analysts say.

"The HTS of today is not what it was in 2020," Ozkizilcik said.

Although Turkey has some influence over the group, Firas Kontar, a Syrian opposition figure of Druze origin and author of "Syria, the Impossible Revolution", believes Erdogan "no longer has the means to stop HTS".

- What are relations like between Damascus and Ankara?

Ankara and Damascus broke off ties in 2011 when the war started with Erdogan backing the rebels and denouncing Assad as a "murderer".

However, since late 2022 the Turkish leader has been seeking a rapprochement, saying in July he was ready to host Assad "at any time".

But Assad said he would only meet if Turkish forces withdrew from Syria.

Ankara is hoping a rapprochement would pave the way for the return of the 3.2 million Syrian refugees still on its soil, whose presence has become a major domestic hot potato.

"Now with the changing situation on the ground, the balance of power in Syria has shifted: Turkey is the most powerful actor at the moment inside Syria, and Iran and Russia will likely try to negotiate with Turkey," Ozkizilcik said.

- How is Turkey present in Syria?

Since 2016, Turkey has staged multiple operations against Kurdish forces in northern Syria which has given it a foothold in areas bordering the frontier.

The aim is to oust Kurdish fighters from the border zone, notably the YPG (People's Protection Units) which are backed by Washington as bulwark against Islamic State group jihadists.

But Ankara views the YPG as an extension of the PKK which has fought a decades-long insurgency inside Turkey and is banned as a terror group by Washington and Brussels.

- And what of the Syrian Kurdish movements?

According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, pro-Turkey rebels on Sunday seized Tal Rifaat, a town north of Aleppo and the surrounding villages, where some 200,000 Syrian Kurds were living.

Tal Rifaat lies just outside Turkey's "security zone" with the move prompting Kurdish residents to flee to a safe zone further east.

Turkey's secret service said it had killed a PKK leader in the area.

"Turkey has already made and probably will make many gains against the YPG terror group to secure its national security," said Ozkizilcik.