Who controls what in Syria as post-Assad transition begins?

Syria is predominantly controlled by rebel groups and Kurdish-led forces following the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad on Sunday. A transition involving Assad’s government is currently underway, though questions remain about who will rule the country and the status of foreign forces, including Russia’s.

Syrian rebel groups stormed into Damascus on Saturday, taking the city without significant resistance from Assad’s forces. The victory capped off a monumental rebel offensive that began late last month, leading to the government’s defeat in Aleppo, Hama and other major cities. Assad reportedly flew out of the city hours before the rebels entered, though his exact whereabouts are unknown.

The rebel offensive was led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, with additional support from the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, local fighters in the south and others. The following are the main groups operating in post-Assad Syria.

HTS

HTS led the rebels into Aleppo before taking Hama and ultimately Damascus. The group is led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the nom de guerre of Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’a, a longtime fighter who battled US forces in Iraq after the 2003 invasion. Golani visited Damascus on Sunday following the rebel victory and ouster of Assad.

Before the rebel advance, HTS’ stronghold was the northwest Idlib province where it governed via its Salvation Government. The government was formed in 2017 after the creation of HTS via the merger of several Islamist armed groups. That merger followed HTS’ predecessor, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, splitting from al-Qaeda in 2016. HTS is considered a terrorist organization by the US, UN, Turkey and others.

Turkish-backed groups

Turkey supports rebel groups within the SNA. The groups control parts of northern Syria close to the Turkish border, including Afrin, Suluk and Ras al-Ain. The SNA captured these areas in 2018 and 2019 from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

SDF

The SDF is the military force for the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. The People’s Protection Units, a Kurdish armed group, is the dominant force within the SDF, though there are fighters from Arab, Christian and other communities as well. The SDF controls large parts of north and northeast Syria, including the cities of Raqqa, Hasakah, the administrative capital of Qamishli and parts of Deir Ezzor province.

Turkey considers the SDF to be the Syrian offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party, though the SDF denies this.

The conflict between the SDF and the SNA is ongoing, and clashes were still underway over the city of Manbij on Sunday. Last week, the SNA captured Tell Rifaat north of Aleppo from the SDF.

SDF forces entered the city of Deir Ezzor on Friday. On Sunday, rebel groups say they went into the city.

The SDF’s political wing expressed its “heartfelt congratulations” to the Syrian people on Sunday in regard to the end of Assad’s regime and pledged to work with different groups in the country.

“We will collaborate with all Syrian national, cultural and societal powers through engaging in the national dialogue and assuming our responsibility to establish a new Syria that is inclusive of all its citizens,” said the Syrian Democratic Council in a statement.

Russia

Russia operates a naval base in Tartous as well as an air base in Hmeimim, both located on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Sunday that its bases are on “high alert,” adding that “there is no serious threat to their security at the moment.”

The ministry confirmed that Assad left Syria in the statement and said that Russia “maintains contact with all Syrian opposition groups.”

Russia backed Assad’s forces in the fight against rebel groups for much of the civil war.

United States

There are around 900 US troops in northeast Syria, where they are helping the SDF fight the Islamic State (ISIS). The United States has an additional base at al-Tanf in the south, located near the Jordanian and Iraqi borders.

US President Joe Biden said on Sunday that American troops would remain in Syria in order to “ensure stability.”

Southern factions

Various armed groups in southern Syria helped oust government forces from the area. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that “local factions” seized most of Daraa province as well as the predominantly Druze Suwayda province on Friday.

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that he ordered the Israeli military to enter the buffer zone in the Golan Heights due to the Syrian army abandoning their positions there. The zone was established by a 1974 ceasefire agreement between Israel and Syria.

Israel occupied most of the Golan Heights after taking it from Syria in the 1967 war and annexed the territory in 1981.

Later on Sunday, Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee warned residents of Quneitra and other parts of Syria close to the border to remain at home, saying activity there was “forcing” the military to act.

Transition of power

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali posted a video on Sunday saying that he will remain in Syria and that its institutions “belong to all Syrians,” voicing his support for a transition of power.

“This country can be a normal country, a country that builds good relations with its neighbors and with the world, without entering into any regional alliances. But we’ll leave this matter to any new leadership that will be chosen by the Syrian people,” said Jalali.

Jalali was named prime minister by Assad in September during a cabinet reshuffle. He previously served as communications minister from 2014 to 2016. Jalali has been sanctioned by the European Union since 2014 for his alleged role in repressing civilians.

In a Sunday statement, Golani said that fighters are forbidden from entering public institutions, saying they will remain “under the supervision” of Jalali until they are “officially handed over.”

Video emerged on social media Sunday showing Jalali being escorted by rebel fighters.

The statement did not offer further details.