Reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency show Iran has significantly stepped up its production of uranium-enriched to near nuclear weapons-grade levels, as tensions between Tehran and Washington worsen.
Two quarterly reports by the IAEA, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, were sent to its member states and shown to multiple press outlets on Wednesday. The reports claim Iran has increased its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium by over 200 pounds since its last report in November. According to the IAEA, Iran now possesses an estimated 605 pounds of uranium enriched to 60%, while its total stockpile of enriched uranium now stands at 18,286 pounds, up by 3,725 pounds since November.
Uranium enriched to 60% is just one technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90% enriched uranium. The IAEA estimates that roughly 92 pounds of 90% enriched uranium are needed to produce one nuclear bomb.
The report rang alarm bells in the international community — particularly in the United States and Israel. On Feb. 6, Trump issued a National Security Presidential Memorandum that directed US federal agencies to implement a policy of maximum pressure on Iran — a policy Trump adopted in his first term after withdrawing the United States from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018. Without a deal and despite sanctions, “The Iranian program has been on turbocharge,” IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told Al-Monitor's Elizabeth Hagedorn in September.
Maximum pressure 2.0 levies further sanctions, enacts stricter enforcement mechanisms and hopes to drive Iranian oil exports to zero, among other things. The broader aim of maximum pressure is to economically cripple Iran, forcing it to come back to the table for nuclear negotiations. Still, Iran has rejected Trump’s approach.
Just one day after Trump signed his directive for maximum pressure, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that “there should be no negotiations with such a government.” Khamenei stopped short of explicitly forbidding negotiations with the United States.
Yesterday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi doubled down on this sentiment. After a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, in Tehran, Araghchi said in a press conference, "Iran’s position regarding nuclear talks is clear, and we will not negotiate under pressure and sanctions."
“There is no possibility of direct negotiations with the US as long as maximum pressure is being applied in this way,” Araghchi added.
For Israel, Iran’s nuclear activity has long represented a looming threat. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly eager to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, but he needs the green light from the United States.
Netanyahu and his inner circle could see their hopes come to fruition. After Netanyahu’s visit to the White House in early February, Al-Monitor's Ben Caspit — citing senior Israeli diplomatic sources — reported that Israel and the United States reached a “full understanding” on the Iranian nuclear issue. This includes agreement on measures to be taken if Iran refuses to sign a new nuclear deal, which has thus far been the Iranian position.
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