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Analysis

Will Trump's Gaza plan scuttle fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire?

Strong negative responses to Trump's plan to transfer Palestinians from Gaza may provide Hamas an excuse not to release more hostages, Israeli officials fear.

U.S. President Donald Trump greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in Washington, D.C. on February 4, 2025. (Photo by Bryan Dozier / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP) (Photo by BRYAN DOZIER/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
U.S. President Donald Trump greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in Washington, D.C. on February 4, 2025. — BRYAN DOZIER/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — Awaiting the Saturday release of three more hostages held by Hamas, Israel fears that the Gaza evacuation plan announced Tuesday by President Donald Trump could disrupt or even halt the ongoing ceasefire deal, including the return of the captives.

The three-phase agreement that went into effect Jan. 19 calls first for the release of 33 hostages within 42 days. Ten Israelis have been released so far. Small groups of hostages are set for release each Saturday, with Hamas announcing their names a day in advance.

"What interest does Hamas have in continuing the process if it now knows that not only is it not staying in Gaza the day after the war, not even Gazans are supposed to stay there?," a senior Israeli security official said to Al-Monitor, speaking on condition of anonymity. 

The strong reactions across the Arab world as well as in Europe to Trump's plan could offer Hamas an excuse not to proceed with the ceasefire agreement, the senior Israeli security source noted, adding, "It raises major questions about the third phase . . . which sees the reconstruction of Gaza. This new plan sees reconstruction of the Strip while sending the Gazans away from their lands."

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