The Middle East’s fortunes in a shifting global trade environment are up in the air as US President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda reached a critical juncture on July 9 and a three-week window opened before higher levies kick in Aug. 1.

This extension, announced July 7, prolongs the original 90-day pause on most so-called reciprocal tariffs that expired this week, giving countries more time to negotiate US trade deals. As of this writing, the Trump administration has announced trade pacts with China, the United Kingdom and Vietnam.  

The Middle East and North Africa has largely escaped direct tariff shocks so far and the Aug. 1 deadline doesn’t dramatically change this risk profile, but it remains unclear how actively regional states will pursue US trade pacts in this window.

“The news front regarding negotiations around trade agreements between MENA countries and the US has been very quiet recently,” Ralf Wiegert, head of MENA economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told Al-Monitor. “It is difficult to assess the current status of negotiations for MENA or if there is meaningful progress.”