After NATO set its new defense spending target at 5% of members' GDP, Turkey’s defense sector is gearing up for a $200 billion spending spree — one that is self-funded, strategically fraught and entirely up to Ankara to get right.

At the summit, held in The Hague June 24-25, NATO allies committed to investing 5% of their GDP on defense. Heads of allied governments agreed that 3.5% of their national income could go to “defense requirements” and 1.5% on “defense- and security-related investments like infrastructure and industry,” according to NATO’s website. But unlike Cold War-era boosts backed by foreign aid or urgency, this round will be self-financed and self-directed. Experts say the shift presents Turkey not just with choices over weapons and technologies but also with deeper dilemmas over priorities, doctrine and how to avoid repeating past missteps in procurement and planning.

Turkey’s estimated defense and security budget of $45 billion comes to about 3.46% of its 2024 national income of $1.3 trillion, according to Turkish government statistics. That means Ankara could increase its defense and security spending by another $20 billion per annum, or $200 billion in total over the next 10 years.

Experts who spoke to Al-Monitor argued that efforts should focus on hitherto less thought of weapon systems, platforms and areas, especially in robotics, space and cyberwarfare.