UAE leader visits Turkey, emphasizing shift from rivalry to regional alignment

ANKARA/WASHINGTON — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed on Wednesday in the first such since July 2023, during which they signed agreements to expand their once-fraught bilateral ties and amid shifting regional dynamics that present new opportunities for both countries.

Sheikh Mohammed arrived in Ankara around 3 p.m. local time (8 a.m. ET), leading a high-level delegation. The Emirati delegation included Interior Minister Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohamed bin Zayed, Presidential Court Deputy Chairman Sheikh Zayed bin Mohamed bin Zayed and presidential advisor Sheikh Mohammed bin Hamad bin Tahnoon, according to the UAE’s state-run WAM news agency.

From the Turkish side, Defense Minister Yasar Guler, Economy Minister Mehmet Simsek and intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin joined the talks, along with other senior officials.

Following nearly four hours of meetings, Erdogan and his Emirati counterpart oversaw the signing of seven memorandums of understanding covering cooperation in tourism, agriculture and pharmaceuticals.

Noting that the UAE is one of Turkey's leading trading partners in the Middle East, Erdogan described the talks as “productive” during a brief on-camera speech ahead of the signing ceremony.

“The talks also reviewed progress in UAE-Turkey relations,” WAM reported, particularly in the fields of economy, trade and technology.

From rivals to defense partners

Erdogan visited the UAE in 2021 and 2024. Most recently, the two met on the sidelines of the G-7 summit in Italy in June 2024.

Turkey’s ties with the UAE — as well as with Saudi Arabia and Egypt — had long been strained over Ankara’s backing of the Muslim Brotherhood, which all three states designated as a terrorist group. Seeking to break its regional isolation and following the group's overthrow from power in Egypt, Ankara began rolling back its overt support in the last five years

“The two countries are now managing to compartmentalize their differences,” Sinem Cengiz, a researcher at Qatar University’s Gulf Studies Center, told Al-Monitor.

“This approach has allowed their relations to evolve from zero-sum to cooperation,” she added.

Erdogan’s 2021 visit to the UAE marked a turning point, closing a turbulent chapter during which Turkish officials openly accused Emirati leaders of supporting the failed 2016 coup attempt.

Ironically, Sheikh Mohammed’s visit this week came just one day after the anniversary of that coup.

On Wednesday, Erdogan and the Emirati president also co-chaired the inaugural session of the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council — launched in 2023 to formalize growing ties.

“At the bilateral level, the UAE is pursuing greater strategic autonomy by diversifying its alliances beyond traditional partners,” Cengiz said. 

Defense cooperation has surged since 2023. The two countries have since signed over 20 defense industry agreements. Turkish aerospace firm TUSAS and UAE-based Calidus signed a separate $50 billion defense and space partnership deal aimed at co-developing advanced unmanned aerial vehicles, missile systems and satellite technologies.

Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a prominent Emirati academic and professor of political science at the United Arab Emirates University in Al Ain, told Al-Monitor that the current relationship between Turkey and the UAE is framed around strategic interests. "There is a deep, strategic conversation going between Ankara and Abu Dhabi these days on many issues, be it regional, be it bilateral, be it even beyond the Middle East, in Africa, in other places," Abdulla said.

Common interests in post-Assad Syria?

The two leaders also discussed a range of regional and global issues, particularly the recent situation in the Middle East, according to WAM. 

The leaders “underscored the need to prioritize diplomacy and dialogue in resolving conflicts,” the Emirati agency said.

Wednesday’s visit marked Sheikh Mohammed’s first trip to Turkey since the collapse of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad in December of 2024, a seismic shift that analysts believe is poised to bring the two capitals closer.

“Regional developments, especially in Syria, have clarified what Ankara and Abu Dhabi increasingly understood,” Robert Mogielnicki of the Arab Gulf States Institute told Al-Monitor.

“It was in their mutual interests to maintain strong working relations,” he explained.

Turkey, which once backed rebel forces fighting the Syrian regime, has now emerged as a closer partner of Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa. Ankara — hoping to maintain its influence in Syria — wants the allied administration in Damascus to consolidate its power in the war-ravaged country, which would require Gulf funds to aid in the reconstruction of the country.

The UAE, in turn, is increasing its economic foothold in the country’s reconstruction economy. It has already stepped up its economic engagement with Syria. Dubai Ports World signed a $800 million deal with Syria earlier this week for infrastructure and logistic services at Tartous port on the coast off the Mediterranean.

Sharaa paid his second visit to Emirates last week, meeting with Sheikh Mohammed and other senior UAE officials.  

"There is a vacuum of a sort after Iran retreated in many places in the region," Abdulla told Al-Monitor. Along with the collapse of the Assad dynasty, the influence of Iran in the country, which was one of the main backers of the Syrian regime, also vanished.

"So there is a need to fill in this strategic vacuum," Abdulla added. 

On Syria, according to Abdulla, Turkey and the UAE are in agreement "almost 90% of the time."

Bridging Caucasus divides

Another potential area for regional cooperation lies in the Southern Caucasus, where international diplomatic efforts aim to reconcile Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Earlier this month, the UAE hosted talks between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in an effort to finalize a March 10 peace deal signed between the two countries. 

Ankara, which has tied its own normalization with Yerevan to the successful conclusion of that peace deal, seeks to speed up the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. 

The timing of the “visit underscores their growing cooperation in the South Caucasus,” Cengiz said.  

The Emirati mediation efforts “reflect the UAE’s desire to reposition itself as a regional bridge-builder, aligning in certain areas with Turkey’s interests,” according to Cengiz.

The high-stakes dance

While both the UAE and Turkey have so far managed to compartmentalize their differences, some remain in several areas. 

Turkey hasn’t fully cut ties with the Muslim Brotherhood, and it vocally supports Hamas, an affiliate of the group. Both the Brotherhood and the Palestinian militant group, meanwhile, are still considered hostile actors by the UAE.

But according to analysts, both countries have reasons to keep these disagreements from affecting their mutual interests. 

“Both have a strong incentive to structure relations in such a way that minimizes risks going forward,” Mogielnicki said. 

“There is a prevailing view in the region that foreign policy must be good for business,” he added.

Trade between the two nations exceeded $15 billion in 2024, according to official figures. Tariffs on over 80% of traded goods were either slashed or completely removed under the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), signed in  2023 as the two countries aim to raise their mutual trade to $40 billion by 2028.

“There’s also a sense that getting relations right comes with substantial economic and commercial potential, too,” Mogielnicki added. 

Cengiz, in turn, noted that in some other regional conflicts, the divides were narrowing.

“In Libya, for example, the UAE broke its long-standing policy and moved closer to Turkey’s position,” Cengiz said. 

While Turkey has backed the internationally recognized government in Tripoli, the Government of National Unity, the UAE has backed General Khalifa Hifter, who leads the Libyan National Army in the eastern part of the country. 

Security forces stand guard as Libyans perform the morning prayer of Eid al-Fitr near a portrait of the military strongman of eastern Libya, Khalifa Hiftar, in the port city of Benghazi on March 31, 2025. (ABDULLAH DOMA/AFP via Getty Images)

However, both countries’ positions on the North African state have seemingly converged in recent years, with the UAE backing reconciliation talks between rival factions and Turkey taking a more balanced stance by increasing engagement with the Hifter camp.

"We might have a few differences here and there, but for the first time ... I think we are in for stability in the region, first and foremost," Abdulla said.

"We have moved now from the bad 'C' of conflict to the good 'C' of conversation and cooperation."