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Analysis

How Iraq’s next government could shape the US-Iran rivalry

Millions of Iraqis headed to the polls last week to vote, but it could be months before a new government takes shape.

Supporters of incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani wave national flags in front of a screen displaying his portrait as they celebrate following the announcement of preliminary election results in Baghdad on Nov. 12, 2025.
Supporters of incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani wave national flags in front of a screen displaying his portrait as they celebrate following the announcement of preliminary election results in Baghdad on Nov. 12, 2025. — AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP via Getty Images

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WASHINGTON — Iraq’s next government will determine not only who leads the country as prime minister but how it navigates the fraught tug-of-war between the United States and Iran. 

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s coalition won 46 seats — the most in Iraq's national elections last week — but fell well short of a majority in the 329-seat parliament, setting the stage for what is likely to be a drawn-out process of coalition-building to form a new Iraqi government.

Sudani casts himself as the leader best suited to juggle Baghdad's relations with both Washington and Tehran, which have vied for influence in Iraq since the US-led invasion toppled longtime dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003. Sudani has sought to tackle rampant government corruption since taking office and is credited with helping insulate Iraq from the regional chaos that followed Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel. 

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