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Analysis

Turkey's Gaza ambitions grow as Israel's pushback hardens: Can US mediate?

Ankara is expanding its influence in Gaza through aid and mediation amid Israeli wariness, heightening tensions that the United States is working to keep in check.

ISTANBUL, TURKEY - JUNE 01: People carry a large Palestinian flag during a protest to express support for Palestinians in Gaza outside the Hagia Sophia Grand Mosque on June 01, 2025 in Istanbul, Turkey. Protests continue as talks between Hamas, Israel and the U.S continue to seek a ceasefire deal and negotiate for a permanent end to the war. (Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)
People carry a large Palestinian flag during a protest to express support for Palestinians in Gaza outside the Hagia Sophia Grand Mosque on June 01, 2025 in Istanbul, Turkey. — Chris McGrath/Getty Images

TEL AVIV/ANKARA — Turkey’s chances of joining a Gaza stabilization force remain slim, but as Turkish influence in the Palestinian enclave expands, Israel is mounting a pushback as the US tries to mediate between two close allies. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, long a champion of the Palestinian cause, has sought to position Turkey as a key mediator in Gaza’s political and humanitarian affairs. In October, Ankara took on a direct role in efforts to persuade Hamas to accept US President Donald Trump’s 20-point ceasefire plan and has since pushed to expand its influence during the ceasefire process.

Israel remains unlikely to approve a significant Turkish role in Gaza, as Ankara has little room to soften its hard-line stance toward Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Still, Turkey is poised to expand its presence through aid delivery and political engagement with Hamas — a trajectory likely to fuel friction as distrust deepens.

Yet analysts say Washington’s quiet mediation is expected to keep tensions manageable.

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