Israel is likely to strike Iran in the next year, even if the Trump administration does not green-light such an operation, European diplomats told Al-Monitor. The diplomats fear that, despite the damage inflicted by Israel and the United States on Iranian nuclear facilities last June and Israel's clear military advantage vis-a-vis the Iranian army and its air defenses, Tehran remains adamant about pursuing its nuclear ambitions and continues developing its ballistic missile program.

The expected Israeli campaign would be short and intense, but ultimately useless, without any real strategic consequences, a Western diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "Iran will evidently retaliate with a missile launch, perhaps hitting buildings the way it did last time, when it struck the Da Vinci Towers in the heart of Tel Aviv," the source said, stressing that despite the damage, the strategic balance between the two countries would not fundamentally change. "The real shift in the balance of power took place last June. A new round won’t shift it back."

Six months after the strikes, the US administration is focused on advancing the second phase of Trump's Gaza plan, and an Israeli strike on Iran would draw international attention away from it. Still, if no nuclear deal is reached and Tehran takes serious steps toward reviving uranium enrichment and expanding ballistic capabilities, Israel may opt for a strike within the next 12 months, the diplomats said.

Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis research program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told Al-Monitor that the status quo created after the June war is extremely unstable. Both sides are now managing the conflict, but there are no guarantees as to how long this situation will last. "There are two scenarios that worry Israel: The first is miscalculation by either side, but that’s less likely. The more plausible scenario is that Tehran decides to resume uranium enrichment," he said.