Israel on alert amid Iran unrest, sees 'next few days' critical for regime
Israeli assessments indicate that while Iran’s leadership has not shown signs of fully losing control, the situation could change as protests continue.
TEL AVIV — Israeli officials have consistently feared that if the leadership in Tehran finds itself backed into a corner, it will resort to attacking Israel to rally domestic support and safeguard its survival. These days, however, Israeli assessments suggest that if senior Iranian figures feel their backs against the wall, they are more likely to plot an escape than order missile strikes on Israel.
These assessments come amid escalating protests across Iran, now in their 12th day, which have spread to major cities and been met with communications blackouts and security crackdowns.
On the prospects of an attack on Israel, a senior Israeli security official focused on Iranian affairs told Al-Monitor, "It doesn't work that way. This is not a situation with full control and rationalization of decision-making. We are seeing a dramatic historical event. The worse the situation of the Iranian government becomes, the less its ability to take a cynical step such as another war with Israel."
Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official also estimated that the more the current protests intensify, if they do, the more likely senior Iranian officials are to start planning their getaway, how to get family and associates out of the country, how to obtain visas and places of refuge, and so on. "When the wall presses against your back, the system loses control," he added.
