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Israel anticipates anti-regime protests in Iran, unlikely to invade Lebanon

Israeli diplomats and military officials are concerned that the surge in oil prices will prompt the US leader to end operations against Iran before regime change is reached.

Majid Saeedi/Getty Images
Men watch from a hillside as a plume of smoke rises from an explosion on March 2, 2026, in Tehran, Iran. — Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

TEL AVIV — As the war against Iran enters its third day, Israeli officials are expressing concern that US President Donald Trump may halt the joint American-Israeli operation before the regime is overthrown and the country’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs are dismantled.

Israeli diplomats and military officials who spoke to Al-Monitor pointed to several red flags. One of them is the surge in the price of oil following Iran’s attacks on oil facilities in the Gulf and Israeli and American strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure. 

"This is what we fear most of all," a senior Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "Trump is focused on the stock market. He doesn't want a weak dollar; he doesn't want expensive goods; he doesn't have public support for the war in Iran anyway. These things could make it very difficult for him."

Israel hopes that a similar situation to what transpired in Syria in December 2024 and toppled the regime of President Bashar al-Assad could take place in Iran, perhaps starting to unfold in a matter of days with extensive demonstrations that could topple the regime from within.

Could Trump cut Iran operation short?

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