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Analysis

Running out of time: Israel escalates Iran strikes as Trump weighs ‘elegant exit’

The Israeli military is pushing for more strikes on Iran before the window of opportunity closes, when US President Trump decides to end the war.

Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot, Tehran, Iran, March 8, 2026.
Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran, Iran, March 8, 2026. — Majid / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — The hourglass in the war with Iran appears to have turned. With the regime in Tehran showing no signs of collapse, the mass protest of several months ago showing no signs of reawakening and the mobilization of the Kurds or other minoritie no longer seeming relevant, the Americans, as well as the Israelis, are looking for alternatives that will allow them to declare victory at some point and stand down.

Updating war goals

Israel is beginning to update its goals and lower the bar of expectations. Regime change, which was a declared goal at the start of the war, is being replaced with vague wording about creating conditions for regime change and destroying the regime's ability to continue oppressing its people. In a pre-recorded video message Sunday, Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu said the military operation aimed at creating "the conditions that will enable the Iranian people to take control of their own destiny."

The contradictory statements by US President Donald Trump in recent days regarding the state of the war also appear to reflect a shift.

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