The US Energy Information Administration on Tuesday raised its global oil price forecasts for 2026-2027 as fallout from the US-Israel-Iran war is causing a historic supply shock.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, published on April 7, the EIA said Brent crude is now expected to average $96 per barrel in 2026, up from a previous $79 forecast. The agency expects prices will ease to $76 in 2027, but that’s still 18% higher than previous forecasts. The revisions come as benchmark crude prices have hovered around $110-$115 in early April after spiking near $120 last month.
Crucially, the updated outlook lands just hours before the Trump administration’s 8:00 p.m. EST deadline on Tuesday for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This comes as US strikes targeted Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub earlier on Tuesday amid escalating rhetoric.
Details: The EIA’s revised forecasts reflect a market strained by unprecedented supply outages tied to the effective closure of Hormuz, a choke point that typically handles roughly 20% of global oil and liquid natural gas flows.
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