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Analysis

Israel fears Turkey’s Syria ambitions and doubts Trump will stop them

Israeli officials remain skeptical of Turkish and Syrian denials over Ankara’s military ambitions in Syria, warning that a deeper Turkish foothold could threaten Israel’s security and strain its ties with Washington.

ANKARA, TURKEY - JULY 7: U.S. President Donald Trump (L)shakes hands with with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) during a formal arrival at the Bestepe Presidential Palace during the NATO summit on July 7, 2026 in Ankara, Turkey. Leaders from NATO's 32 countries, plus NATO allies like Ukraine, gathered in the Turkish capital to discuss a range of issues involving spending targets, defense industrial production, and support for Ukraine, among other topics. (Photo by Emrah Gurel - Pool/Getty Images)
US President Donald Trump (L)shakes hands with with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) at the Bestepe Presidential Palace during the NATO summit on July 7, 2026, in Ankara, Turkey. — Emrah Gurel/Getty Images

TEL AVIV — Senior Israeli security and political sources remain skeptical of Turkey's claims that it has no intention of establishing military bases in Syria or deploying sophisticated defense systems there.

Israel on Tuesday launched an attack on Syria's Abu al-Duhur Air Base in Idlib province in northern Syria, citing intelligence indicating Turkey's plans to expand its military presence there.  In response to the attack, senior Turkish officials — including Burhanettin Duran, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s top communications aide — rejected the Israeli accusations, but Israeli security sources continue to dispute the Turkish denials.

“Don’t be fooled,” a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Turkey intended to place radar systems and attack drones at the Syrian air force base under Syrian cover. The information is very solid. The Turks know that we know, and the Syrians do too. Turkish military forces will not be deployed on Syrian soil. We have no intention of allowing this to happen.”

As one of the main backers of Syria’s armed opposition during the civil war, and through military incursions against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, Turkey gradually deployed an estimated 20,000 troops in northern Syria from 2016 onward. Earlier this year, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler said Ankara had no intention of withdrawing its forces from Syria in the near term.

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