Israel exit polls show Netanyahu, Eisenkot short of majority as Arab parties surge

TEL AVIV — Israel’s election exit polls show neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition securing a clear path to a parliamentary majority, despite Likud emerging as the largest party and Arab parties making major gains.

According to exit polls published by public broadcaster KAN and Channel 12, Likud is projected to win 24–25 seats in the 120-member Knesset, ahead of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which is projected to secure 21–22 seats. Likud would nevertheless fall well short of its current 32 seats, while Yashar appears to have underperformed expectations after opinion polls over the past four months consistently projected it would overtake Likud.

Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to win 50 seats, compared with 52–53 for Eisenkot’s bloc. Arab parties are expected to secure 17–18 seats, potentially leaving neither side with a clear route to the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. The Arab parties currently have 10 seats.

The exit polls suggest a significant drop for Netanyahu's bloc, which has 64 seats in the current parliament. 

With polling stations closed, the Central Elections Committee said turnout stood at 77.7% as of 10 p.m. local time, the highest rate recorded at that hour since 2001. A total of 5.7 million voters had cast ballots, up seven percentage points from the December 2022 election.

In a post on X after the first exit polls were released, Eisenkot said, "The preliminary poll results point to complete distrust in Netanyahu," adding, "If these are the final results, this is a victory for the statist-Zionist majority in Israel," and vowing to "replace the government." 

Naftali Bennett, who leads the opposition’s Together party, said the leaders of the “reform bloc” were in contact and would work to form “a Zionist government of those who serve.” He also described the exit polls as showing that “the alliance of soldiers has defeated the alliance of draft dodgers,” while cautioning that the results could still change.

Among the Arab parties, the Joint List — an alliance of Hadash, Ta’al and Balad — is projected to win 11 seats, while the Islamist Ra’am party is projected to secure seven, according to KAN's exit poll.

Speaking at the Joint List headquarters, Ta’al leader Ahmad Tibi called the Arab parties’ gains an “unprecedented accomplishment” and said the Joint List would “present our demands to the opposition.” He added that “our hand is extended for change.”

Joint List chairman Yousef Jabareen said, “We hope we will be able to declare that the blood-soaked government that has fueled wars, the government of the Kahanists, will be unable to continue on its path.”

Speaking in Sakhnin after the exit polls were released, Ra’am party leader Mansour Abbas said, “We will transform the seats we have won into a new reality in the country.” In a separate interview with Channel 12, Abbas said multiple Israeli parties had reached out to him. “Everyone is talking to us, not just within the ‘Change Bloc,’” he said.

The exit polls point to a potentially difficult coalition-building process, with huge gains by Arab parties further complicating the arithmetic.

Under Israeli law, the president usually picks the leader of the largest party to try to form a government but is guided by recommendations from the parties elected to the Knesset. That task can go to whoever appears best placed to build a majority. 

Official results are expected by Thursday morning local time. 

This is a developing story and has been updated.