Rubio says Iran ‘lost’ Hormuz. Has it?

Explainer

Samuel Wendel

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks at the Pnyx hill, where ancient Athenians held democratic assemblies, with the ancient Parthenon temple atop the Acropolis seen in the background, in Athens on October 7, 2026. (Photo by Mark Schiefelbein / POOL / AFP via Getty Images) — US Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks at the Pnyx hill in Athens, on Oct. 7, 2026. — Mark Schiefelbein / POOL / AFP via Getty Images

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that Iran has “lost complete control” of the Strait of Hormuz, pointing to the recovery in Gulf oil exports as evidence that Tehran’s grip on the vital waterway is weakening.

The situation in the strategic strait is more complicated in reality. Oil is again flowing near prewar levels, yet tankers continue coming under attack as markets remain on edge amid concerns Iran could escalate strikes on Gulf exporters. Meanwhile, key oil industry executives this week flagged risks facing a long-term rebound.

What happened: Speaking to reporters during a visit to Athens, Rubio said that “almost as much oil” was now flowing out of the Gulf as before the US-Iran conflict began, arguing that Iran had therefore lost control of the strait. He also said Iran’s economy was in “total and complete free fall.”

The comments came as international benchmark Brent crude traded around $101 per barrel Wednesday, roughly 1% higher on the day but broadly in line with prices seen so far in October.