As Assad’s Forces Take Control Of Qusair, What Comes Next?
Now that the Syrian regime’s forces control half of the city of Qusair near Lebanon’s northern border, the balance seems to once again be shifting in the Syrian conflict.
The recent attack on the Syrian city of Qusair — which is located in the Homs countryside, a strategic area whose importance was highlighted in several Al-Monitor articles — carries many indications.
The latest developments on the ground confirm that pro-Assad military forces have conducted an incursion into the city and reached the main highway in Qusair on the evening of Monday [May 20]. This has allowed them to control half of the city and to maintain a military siege on the other half still under the control of opposition armed forces. There are several observations regarding this pivotal battle:
First, the developments of the Qusair battle coincided with reports published by some websites close to Hezbollah about the death of Shiite militants, said to number 16, in defense of the Sayyida Zeinab shrine in Damascus. The same websites said that the "defenders" include nationals from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and even Iran. In Beirut, it was confirmed that the nephew of Fayez Shokor, the secretary-general of the Baath Party in Lebanon and an ally of Hezbollah, was among the casualties. This concurrence increased accusations against the main Lebanese Shiite organization by its opponents of aiding the Syrian regime forces in the Qusair battle.
Second, the immediate response in Lebanon to the advance of the regime forces in Qusair was the outbreak of renewed military clashes in the northern city of Tripoli between Sunni neighborhoods and the sole Alawite neighborhood located on the eastern side of the city. Lebanese Alawite sources expressed serious concerns that the [Syrian] regime’s full control over Qusair would lead to reprisals or retaliations in Tripoli against the Alawite neighborhood. Some even fear that Sunni fundamentalists may attempt to storm the Alawite neighborhood in response to the fall of Qusair. The situation has prompted the Lebanese military to step up its level of alert in anticipation of any possible developments.
