Netanyahu victory or another vote? 5 scenarios for Israel’s election

TEL AVIV — Polls show the opposition bloc and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s camp winning nearly the same number of seats in Israel’s Oct. 27 elections, leaving neither bloc with a clear path to a majority and several scenarios in play.

Analysts tell Al-Monitor that Netanyahu’s chances of securing a majority appear slim but cannot be ruled out, and that another round of elections, which would be Israel's seventh in under four years, remains a distinct possibility.

Under Israel’s proportional representation system, a candidate tasked by the president with forming a government must secure the support of at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 members. Polls over the past four months have generally given Gadi Eisenkot’s center-right Yashar party an edge over Netanyahu’s Likud party, though the gap between the parties — and between their respective blocs — has narrowed. 

Eisenkot and fellow opposition leaders Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid and Avigdor Lieberman have all said they would not include Arab parties in a future coalition. Bennett and Lapid head Together, an alliance of Bennett’s right-wing party and Lapid’s centrist Yesh Atid. Lieberman leads Yisrael Beiteinu, a right-wing party that largely represents Israelis of Russian-speaking origin. Polls over the past four months suggest the Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra’am, could win 13 to 15 Knesset seats, up from nine currently, making them possible kingmakers in the coalition-making process. 

Parties need 3.25% of the vote, equal to four seats, to enter the Knesset.

Here are five possible scenarios ahead of the Oct. 27 vote. 

Scenario 1: Opposition bloc wins clear majority 

In the first scenario, the opposition bloc wins a majority of Knesset seats without the Arab parties, and Eisenkot becomes prime minister. That would require the bloc, which spans centrist, right-wing and left-wing Zionist parties, to outperform current polls. The newly formed Reservists party, which campaigns on ending military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox, among other priorities, could also join the government if it clears the electoral threshold.

Still, the prospect of Eisenkot securing a majority appears slim.

Scenario 2: Netanyahu wins

In the second scenario, Netanyahu’s bloc wins a majority. Over the past four months, however, only polls by Channel 14, which is strongly aligned with Netanyahu, have pointed to such an outcome. If he wins, Netanyahu would keep his current far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners and could invite Ofer Winter’s small People of Israel party and Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists party to join if they enter the Knesset.

Winter’s pro-settlement, right-wing policies broadly match Netanyahu’s agenda, but he opposes ultra-Orthodox military exemptions and has criticized the political and security establishment in power during the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack, which would complicate his entry into the government. The more centrist Reservists, who also oppose the exemptions, could be an even more difficult partner.

Polls place both parties close to the electoral threshold, making it hard to predict whether either will enter the Knesset. Fearing that Winter will draw votes from the far-right Religious Zionism party, Netanyahu’s associates have pressed him to withdraw.

Scenario 3: Eisenkot forms minority government

In the third scenario, Eisenkot forms a minority government with outside support from Arab parties. Such a government would hold fewer than 61 seats and depend on the Joint List and Ra’am. Arab party leaders have told Al-Monitor they would back such an arrangement to keep Netanyahu from forming the next government, but some Zionist opposition parties have said they would not serve with Arab parties in any capacity.

Israeli governments can be toppled only through a constructive no-confidence vote, in which at least 61 lawmakers must back a named alternative prime minister. An Eisenkot-led minority government could count on Arab parties to deny the opposition — Netanyahu's bloc — that majority.

Scenario 4: Eisenkot and Netanyahu form unity government

The fourth scenario would be a unity government between Eisenkot and Netanyahu, with the two rotating as prime minister after serving for two years each. Such a broad coalition would likely exclude the ultra-Orthodox parties, as Eisenkot would likely demand the enforcement of military conscription for ultra-Orthodox men. However, this appears a distant prospect as all opposition heads have pledged during the campaign not to join a government led by Netanyahu. 

Political differences aside, the five leaders do not trust Netanyahu to honor a power-sharing agreement. In 2020, Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz agreed to rotate the premiership, with Gantz due to take over in November 2021. The deal collapsed when the government failed to pass a budget, triggering the Knesset’s automatic dissolution. Gantz accused Netanyahu of deliberately blocking the budget to avoid the handover, which Netanyahu denied.

Scenario 5: Stalemate, new elections 

The fifth scenario is an enduring stalemate. Under Israeli law, if the candidate tasked by the president fails to form a stable government, the president can appoint another candidate or the country can head to another election. Political dysfunction has caused Israel to hold five elections in the past 3.5 years.  

“Netanyahu’s only advantage is that the opposition also appears unable to form a majority coalition,” Tal Schneider, political correspondent for The Times of Israel, told Al-Monitor. “That is the essence of his campaign. If his opponents cannot form a government, he can remain caretaker prime minister until another election is called.” Schneider said Netanyahu’s real goal may be to force another round of elections.

"If small parties fail to cross the threshold, thousands of votes effectively count for nothing,” she said. 

Arab turnout could prove decisive, as participation has traditionally been lower among Arab voters. In the December 2022 elections, turnout among Arab voters — who make up 21% of the Israeli population — stood at 53%. Arab politicians are now hoping to get many more of their voters to the polling stations. The rise may reflect growing momentum among Arab Israelis to help oust Netanyahu and press a future government to address their communities’ concerns, particularly rising violence and crime in Arab towns and villages.