The Syrian crisis is at a crucial crossroads, with one path preserving the option for a “soft landing,” while the other portends a descent into a protracted sectarian conflict.

Hoping to avert a civil war, the United Nations has accelerated efforts to stave off the bloodshed and encourage a peaceful political transition via the “Annan Plan.” As Syria spirals deeper into violence, the U.N.-backed plan is rapidly unraveling, but still represents the last, best chance for avoiding widespread conflict in Syria.  The Annan Plan embodies an unprecedented international consensus on Syria, including Russia and China, which could be leveraged to impose significant consequences on the Syrian government if the plan collapses.

The Syrian uprising is the most brutal of the Arab revolts. The U.N. estimates that more than 9,000 people have died, while a British-based Syrian organization puts the figure at 11,000. Human rights groups have accused the Syrian government of widespread illegal detentions, torture, and extrajudicial killings. The United Nations Human Rights Commission has reported evidence that Syrian forces have committed crimes against humanity. Syria’s armed opposition has also been accused of human rights abuses. The U.N. estimates that the conflict has created 61,000 refugees and displaced 230,000 people internally.

Prompted by Syria’s deteriorating humanitarian situation, the U.N. has spearheaded efforts to find a peaceful resolution, led by former Secretary-General Kofi Annan. Annan successfully negotiated a six-point plan to end the violence and address numerous political and humanitarian concerns. A spotty cease-fire went into effect April 12, with Syrian government shelling continuing in hotspots including Hama, Homs, and the Damascus suburbs. Other key elements of the plan include a total pullback of Syrian troops from population centers, release of detainees, the right of Syrians to protest peacefully, and the provision of humanitarian aid.