On Aug. 10, Turkey’s successful and ambitious Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was elected president with 51.8% of the vote. His victory surprised no one, but it did raise new questions about his Justice and Development Party (AKP) that has ruled Turkey single-handedly since 2002.
As the Turkish Constitution defines the presidency as a nonpartisan post, Erdogan will be officially dissociated from the AKP on Aug. 28, the day he takes the oath of office. This means that while the persona of Erdogan will still loom large, the AKP will need a new leader who will also be Turkey’s new prime minister. Who that person will be and what that will mean for Turkey are the next big questions.
In the minds of many, the most likely candidate for the leadership of the AKP after Erdogan was Abdullah Gul, who has served as president since 2007. Gul, with Erdogan, has been one of the two main pillars of the AKP, and was the party’s first prime minister briefly in 2002. Recent polls show that Gul is still very popular in the AKP’s base and in Turkish society in general.
That is probably why Gul declared on Aug. 11, the day after Erdogan’s election, “I will return to my party.” But, alas, just 30 minutes later, the AKP central committee, convened under the chairmanship of Erdogan, declared the date of the next party congress, when the new party leader will be elected: Aug. 27, just a day before the end of Gul’s term. This means that since Gul will still be the president on Aug. 27, he will not be eligible to run for the AKP leadership.
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