Whoever listened to IDF (Israel Defense Forces) spokesman Brig. Gen. Moti Almoz at the impromptu news conference he convened on the evening of Jan. 28 near the Northern Command headquarters could hear the expressions "prudence" and "responsibility" many times. It was no coincidence that Almoz, an experienced and level-headed officer, used these very words. It seems to me that both in his subconscious, as in that of IDF general staff seniors, one could hear a silent prayer; all the decision-makers on both sides of the border should employ these same qualities (prudence and responsibility) as much as possible. I express my own opinion when I say that, but I bet that many IDF top brass members were worried the night of Jan. 28 about the extent of prudence and responsibility, mainly on their side, the Israeli side.
On the morning of Jan. 29, while these words are being written, the overall impression is that prudence and responsibility won out. This is a short-term victory. This round in the regional war between Israel and Iran and Iran's proxies (Hezbollah and Syria, in that order) ended in a tactical draw, but with a prominent strategic victory for Israel.
The tactical draw stems from the fact that, according to foreign media sources, Israel destroyed two Hezbollah and Syrian vehicles on Jan. 18, and in retaliation Hezbollah destroyed two IDF vehicles. A strategic victory was declared because Hezbollah killed a Givati infantry brigade officer and soldier. This is a painful loss, especially in Israeli society, which is very sensitive to the loss of its soldiers, even more than its civilians. But by contrast, according to foreign media sources, Israel wiped out all the elites of a terrorist branch that was being formed on the Golan Heights border fence. This included the son of Imad Mughniyeh, Hezbollah's mythological hero (who was eliminated in Damascus in an operation attributed to Israel exactly seven years earlier, in 2008). Thus, significant and substantial damage was leveled on Iranian-Hezbollah efforts to establish another front vis-à-vis Israel on the Golan Heights — a front that was supposed to be risk-clean and of few serious dangers. It will take them time to recreate this undertaking while knowing that Israel is vigilantly keeping close tabs on developments and will not hesitate to use force when it reaches the conclusion that the infrastructure being constructed in its vicinity is nearing the danger point.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe (Bogie) Ya'alon made a very difficult decision the night of Jan. 28. At this point, all the considerations, security and political, united in one single vortex.
AL-MONITOR All-Access gives you unlimited access to all our journalism, the full Daily Briefing, exclusive interviews, premium newsletters, and live events — for less than $2/week.