German Chancellor Angela Merkel has recently toughened her tone against Ankara, irked by its growing disrespect for democratic norms and the arrests of German journalists and activists in Turkey. This has led many to believe that she will try to mobilize European Union institutions to pressure Ankara, including through certain sanctions.

Last week, the German leader signaled that Turkey’s customs union with the EU, an important phase on the path to full membership, would be an area where Ankara would face the music. Turkey has sought an update to the 1995 customs union deal, arguing that it has developed to Turkey's disadvantage over the years. Negotiations on the issue were expected to start around this time after the European Commission got the green light from the European Council.

Merkel, however, poured cold water on such prospects. “We are not opening new chapters in Turkey’s [EU] accession bid, and we have lowered membership preparation aid to a minimum. Also, for the time being, the customs union deal with Turkey will not be changed or updated,” Merkel said Aug. 16 as she answered questions from viewers on YouTube ahead of Germany’s Sept. 24 elections. Merkel spoke of deepening disagreements with Ankara, mentioning its refusal to free Die Welt correspondent Deniz Yucel. Asked about tougher measures, she said, “We cannot ignore the fact that Turkey is not only [President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan and his government. Almost 50% said ‘No’ to the recent constitutional changes and … we cannot send wrong signals to the 50% who have their hopes in us and want to be in dialogue with us.”

Merkel’s statement drew angry reactions from Ankara. EU Minister Omer Celik called the remarks “unfortunate,” arguing that EU institutions should not allow Germany to turn bilateral problems into a Turkey-EU dispute. On the customs union issue, Celik sought to put on a brave face, saying, “They are acting as if updating the customs union is a concession or a favor to Turkey. This is extremely wrong. Let me underline that we are not in a hurry at all [and] we have no unilateral appetite on this issue.”