The latest intensification of the US-Russian dialogue has revived speculations that Moscow could use Iran as a bargaining chip in its relations with US President Donald Trump. The argument usually goes that Moscow could withdraw its political support for Tehran in exchange for the ease of American political and economic pressure on Russia itself. Yet these suggestions should be taken with a grain of salt.
Indeed, the May 15 visit of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Russia was — without exaggeration — welcomed by the Kremlin. After the report to the commission by special prosecutor Robert Mueller in March, the Russian authorities expected the communication channels with the United States to receive a new boost. Pompeo’s visit to Sochi was meant to set up a "businesslike approach," and in the meantime have Russians and Americans more inclined to make compromises. To achieve such compromises the two sides should have bargaining chips. Iran was thus seen by the US authorities as one of such “exchange assets” in the Kremlin’s arsenal.
A stream of associated speculations shortly followed the Pompeo visit. Bloomberg reported Russia’s alleged rejection to provide Iran with S-400 missile complexes. Others argued that Moscow might see some benefit from the increased pressure on Iran given Moscow’s own interests in the global oil market. The conventional wisdom of this theory suggests that a drop in Iran’s oil exports could give Russia an excuse to insist on the rise in its oil production quota within the so-called Vienna agreement, a deal between OPEC and some non-OPEC countries led by Russia to limit their oil output in order to ensure high oil prices. This, in turn, would allow the Kremlin to increase output — something Russian oil producers, and especially the state-owned Rosneft, have demanded repeatedly while criticizing the deal with OPEC and the imposed production quotas.
Yet a number of events that followed Pompeo’s visit to Russia proved that Moscow is not ready to back the US “maximum pressure” strategy, let alone regime change in Iran.
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