On Oct. 9, the Turkish Armed Forces embarked on Operation Peace Spring, a military campaign to expel US-backed Kurdish militias from Turkey’s border with Syria and facilitate the repatriation of refugees to a designated safe zone in northern Syria. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait swiftly condemned Turkey’s actions as a violation of Syria’s sovereignty, while Qatar stood alone within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as a defender of Turkey’s military intervention.

Although Turkey paused Operation Peace Spring after a US-brokered five-day cease-fire was reached Oct. 17, Ankara’s actions could profoundly impact how the Gulf countries approach the war in Syria and perceive their alliance with the United States, and further complicate prospects for Gulf reconciliation. While the Saudi and Emirati reactions to Turkey’s Operation Olive Branch offensive against Afrin in January 2018 featured ambiguous calls for the creation of an Arab collective security structure and public defenses of the predominantly Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), both countries expressed solidarity with the Syrian state in the aftermath of Operation Peace Spring. 

The UAE, which reestablished relations with Damascus in December 2018, described Syria as a “brotherly Arab country,” while Saudi Arabia more cautiously emphasized the importance of preserving Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Saudi Arabia and the UAE also refrained from providing material support to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) or the YPG, even though both countries had allegedly provided military assistance to Kurdish forces in Syria in the past. As Saudi Arabia opposes Turkey’s safe-zone proposal and is unwilling to instigate a proxy war with Turkey by supporting Kurdish forces, Riyadh might view a rapprochement with the SDF’s new partner, the Syrian government, as the best way to protect its interests.

When asked whether Operation Peace Spring and the resulting alignment between President Bashar al-Assad and the SDF would make Saudi Arabia more inclined to normalize relations with Syria, former US Ambassador to Yemen Gerald Feierstein told Al-Monitor that Saudi Arabia “could accept, if not necessarily embrace” Assad as Syria’s legitimate leader. To justify this argument, Feierstein contended that Saudi Arabia’s desire to accommodate Russia, loss of confidence in US leadership and willingness to align its position with its leading regional partners could eventually cause Riyadh to normalize its diplomatic relationship with Damascus. Although a complete rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Syria could take some time to unfold, Operation Peace Spring could help remove one of the last remaining obstacles to Syria’s return to the Arab League.