Squeezed by Turkey’s military thrust in northeastern Syria and abandoned by the United States, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) had to make a deal with Damascus, which raises a crucial question: Is this the end of Kurdish dreams of autonomy?

Under the deal, government forces have begun to return to areas they ceded seven years ago, with Damascus making no binding pledge about the future of political and military self-rule bodies that the Kurds have built during the war. The Kurds will be in a much weaker position at any negotiating table now, and might be even forced into a zero-sum outcome politically, once the Syrian state takes the upper hand.

For the Kurds, the US military presence was both a strong bargaining chip in any future talks with Damascus and a deterrent element against military moves by Turkey or the Syrian state. This leverage is now lost, following President Donald Trump’s decisions to leave the field to Turkey, withdraw US forces in the north and leave only a small number of troops at the al-Tanf base near the Jordanian and Iraqi border. 

Earlier, Washington had discouraged Kurdish dialogue with Damascus as useless and premature. Still, the Kurds tended to see the US presence as a guarantee. Now, SDF commander Mazlum Abdi, known also as Mazlum Kobane, says Trump did not object to Kurdish contacts with Damascus and Russia in the phone call they had this week. Trump, for his part, tweeted, “Let Syria and Assad protect the Kurds.” How the shifting American position could help the Kurds down the road is hard to predict.