Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s dreams of leadership in the Muslim world may be fading, but they are still kept alive by Turkey's ties with Qatar, which Ankara has shielded in the inter-Arab crisis in the Gulf since 2017. During Erdogan’s visit to Doha last week, the two sides signed seven cooperation accords — a welcome reminder that foreign ties should be driven by mutual interest and not threats and blackmail, which Erdogan has increasingly been using in recent times. Yet how the deals contribute to Turkey’s economic and strategic interests remains open to question, despite celebratory headlines in the pro-government media. 

The accords — signed Nov. 25 in the presence of Erdogan and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani during the fifth meeting of the bilateral Higher Strategic Committee —- aim to boost cooperation in the fields of commerce, finance, investment, technology and urban affairs. The most significant deal is an update of last year’s currency swap agreement between the Turkish and Qatari central banks, which, according to officials, aims to “facilitate bilateral trade in respective local currencies and support the financial stability of the two countries.” Under the deal, the overall swap limit was raised to the $5 billion equivalent in the Turkish lira and Qatari riyal from $3 billion in the original version. 

Going through dire straits both at home and abroad, Erdogan is eager to show he still has friends. And what does this show mean for Qatar? The fresh agreements with Turkey came amid signs of fence-mending between Doha and its “punishers,” led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a process that makes Turkey all the more unwanted in the Gulf. Cutting military ties with Turkey is one of the conditions that the Saudis and the Emiratis put forward to Qatar in 2017, atop earlier demands such as ending support for the Muslim Brotherhood. Hence, Qatar’s extension of its honeymoon with Turkey could snag its attempts at normalization with its Arab neighbors. Shortly before Erdogan’s visit, a decision by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain to send their national teams to a soccer tournament in Qatar had raised hope that the Gulf crisis could be drawing to a close. 

Qatar defended Turkey’s military operation in northern Syria in October, breaking ranks with the critical attitude of the Arab League. Yet Doha has pursued its own agenda in the energy competition in the eastern Mediterranean, including Cyprus, teaming up with Turkey’s rivals. After all, Qatar is not as big as to engage in an “axis” row to an extent that suits Erdogan. Hence, he has turned a blind eye to Qatari collaboration with the Greek Cypriots in gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean.