TBILISI — The South Caucasus has for the past two centuries been considered part of Russia’s exclusive sphere of influence. Even the end of the Soviet Union failed to radically change the dynamic. Although Turkey and Iran were actively involved with the newly established republics of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in the 1990s and early 2000s, Russia remained the dominant force, exerting control both economically and in terms of security.

Things have changed in the past several years, with evident cracks in Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus emerging. While Moscow's influence is not collapsing, it is in "managed decline" amid an uncomfortable repositioning in the last two years. One reason is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which consumed almost all of Moscow’s military resources from the South Caucasus and compromised its prestige as a great power. 

Turkey and Iran expand Influence

Another is Turkey and Iran’s growing power; the two countries are among the first to have benefited from the emerging power vacuum. Ankara has been Azerbaijan’s traditional ally, and the Turkish military was instrumental in helping Baku regain control in 2020 over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave and the surrounding territories that were lost in the early 1990s, after the first war with Armenia. Since 2020, Turkey has expanded its alliance with Azerbaijan in military and economic areas. For instance, Ankara has pushed for the opening of a new trade and transit corridor across Armenia’s southernmost territory, which would allow Turkey to connect via Nakhchivan with Azerbaijan proper.