Uncertain prospects for Iraqi 'Sunni Alliance'

The political map of the Sunni forces after the April parliamentary elections seems, at first glance, like an extension of the map before the election, in terms of the weight and influence of the forces. However, what has changed is that the Sunni political forces will be in a more awkward position than ever to describe what alliances they will make to form a government and how they will deal with the promises made before the election.

The election results have not yet been officially announced, and the media generally seem more focused on the Shiite political map than that of other segments. But the information available so far confirms that the Mutahidoun list, led by current parliament Speaker Osama al-Nujaifi, is running ahead of other Sunni forces. Leaks to Al-Monitor suggest that Mutahidoun will have 33 to 35 seats in the next parliament, mostly centered in Mosul, Baghdad, Anbar and Diyala.

Although the Al-Wataniya list, led by the liberal Shiite Ayad Allawi, did not present itself as a representative of the Sunnis in Iraq, the leaks suggest that it will win 20 to 25 seats concentrated in Baghdad, Babil, Salahuddin, Anbar and Kirkuk, and that most of its seats will go to Sunni candidates within the list.

In third place comes the list of Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq with 8 to 10 seats concentrated in Baghdad and Salahuddin. According to the leaks, local lists have won a number of Sunni seats, which are expected to join various parliamentary alliances.