In 2017, Donald Trump’s first overseas trip as US president started in Saudi Arabia and produced a $110 billion arms sale with the kingdom. His second term could focus similarly on ties in the Gulf. 

Trump has a long track record of dealmaking in the Gulf, ranging from opening hotels to selling fighter jets, not to mention presiding over the historic Abraham Accords (2020), which normalized Israel’s ties with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain and later Morocco and Sudan. After leaving office, Trump along with his family and associates have continued pursuing deals and diplomacy in the region that could now pave the way for new moves across the defense and tech sectors, artificial intelligence and beyond. 

Gulf states that bet on Trump’s return to power are well acquainted with his transactional style of foreign policy, and regional players appear to already be making moves in that respect. On Nov. 12, Qatar’s $510 billion sovereign wealth fund replaced its CEO with the former chief investment officer from its Americas arm, potentially hinting that Doha could be prioritizing US ties with a Trump presidency shaping opportunities.

Trump 2.0 also, however, presents risks for GCC economies, and much has changed in the Middle East since his first presidency. It remains to be seen how Trump navigates a region already in crisis without inflaming tensions as other perils lurk. For instance, there would be fallout to consider from the universal tariff plans Trump says he will implement as well as potential US energy competition with OPEC. In addition, Trump could amplify pressure on regional capitals to choose a side in the US-China rivalry, exposing rifts.