BEIRUT — For decades, Iran methodically built a regional network of alliances, pursuing a strategy to expand its influence from the Gulf to the Mediterranean. Syria, under the Assad family’s rule, served as the linchpin in this plan — a vital link connecting Tehran to its most potent regional ally, Hezbollah, and securing Iran’s foothold in the Levant. Yet today, that once-formidable axis, carefully woven over 40 years, is unraveling.

The collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 delivered a devastating blow to Tehran’s regional ambitions. What began as a bold strategy to challenge Israel and reshape the Middle East’s balance of power now appears increasingly fragile, with Iran’s influence faltering and its allies under siege. Assad’s departure marks not only the end of his regime but also a profound shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape — one that leaves Iran scrambling to maintain its foothold in an increasingly hostile environment.

Syria: The axis’ fragile pillar

Syria’s role in Iran’s strategy has always been pivotal. From the early 1980s, Syria provided a geographic bridge enabling Tehran to arm and support Hezbollah in Lebanon, giving Iran direct leverage over Israel. This partnership began to take shape during a tumultuous moment in Middle Eastern history: Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982, which coincided with Iraq’s withdrawal from Khorramshahr during the Iran-Iraq War.