A new US-brokered transit plan linking Armenia and Azerbaijan — the so-called Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) — is reshaping the South Caucasus chessboard and giving Moscow and Tehran a shared motive to push back. Signed in Washington by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the agreement replaces Russian border guards with a US private military company and sidesteps the Kremlin’s 2020 settlement framework.

Russia’s public response was muted. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova called the meeting “positive” but questioned the need for “external assistance” in the Armenia-Azerbaijan dialogue. Analysts say the hesitation reflects both diplomatic caution — Moscow is in ongoing talks with Washington over the Ukraine war — and the absence of a ready strategy to counter the deal. The 2020 trilateral pact, signed between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan to end the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, had placed the Zangezur Corridor under the control of the Russian security forces, and the TRIPP effectively removes that role.

Behind closed doors, officials acknowledge that this shift represents another step toward Russia losing influence in a region it long treated as its own security perimeter. One Russian diplomatic source told Al-Monitor that Moscow now has “no real levers” to reverse the process. The plan also raises strategic concerns by potentially cutting Armenia’s land link to Iran — a scenario that Russian and Iranian officials may now join forces to prevent.

The crisis in relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, which began after the sluggish reaction from the Kremlin to the downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane in December 2024, is still deepening. The unusually prolonged tension between Moscow and Baku, while still within manageable limits, has led many experts to suggest it is entering a new phase — one in which any careless remark could further fuel the spiral of escalation.