As the United States presses European NATO allies to boost defense spending, it is simultaneously scaling back its own military commitments, creating an opening for Turkey to position its defense industry as a key supplier.

Turkey is already taking concrete steps to expand its role within the alliance, selling European allies drones, armored vehicles and naval platforms, while also participating in joint development programs. As Europe faces production shortfalls and interoperability challenges, Ankara’s industrial agility offers a potential solution, even as sanctions and technological dependencies constrain the scope of its contributions.

Since Trump’s first term (2017-2021), the United States has signaled that it might not defend allies who fail to meet the agreed-upon benchmark of spending at least 2% of their national income on defense, a target set at the 2014 NATO summit in Wales. That figure was raised to 5% by 2035 at the June summit in The Hague.

Under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all, underscoring the stakes of meeting these commitments.