As protests rock Iran and the regime responds with lethal force, US President Donald Trump is signaling he wants to escalate economic pressure on Tehran as Washington considers how to respond to the Islamic Republic’s most serious unrest in years.

On Jan. 12, Trump said that any country trading with Iran would face a 25% tariff on “any and all business” with the United States, adding that the move would take effect “immediately.” The White House hasn’t yet provided details on how such a tariff would be implemented, but the move would have significant consequences for China and Iran’s other top trading partners, including the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Iraq and others. 

But while the proposed 25% levy is grabbing headlines, the threat may be more about optics than impact. “Economic sanctions in the short term are not going to convince the regime to change course when it feels that its survival, literally right now, is at stake,” Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, told Al-Monitor, noting that tougher, more consequential measures would require time, planning and political risk.

What happened: Protests that erupted in late December over rising prices and a collapsing currency have morphed into nationwide demonstrations against Iran’s clerical leadership. Authorities have responded with a deadly crackdown and a near-total communications blackout since Jan. 8.