Maritime strategy

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks at the Pnyx hill, where ancient Athenians held democratic assemblies, with the ancient Parthenon temple atop the Acropolis seen in the background, in Athens on October 7, 2026. (Photo by Mark Schiefelbein / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)

Explainer

Rubio says Iran ‘lost’ Hormuz. Has it?

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that Iran has “lost complete control” of the waterway, pointing to the recovery in Gulf oil exports in September.

A Yemeni man holds up a mock missile decorated with the colors of the Palestinian flag and the chechered keffiyeh in front of portraits of slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (L) and the leader of the Houthi movement, Abdel Malek al-Houthi (R), during a protest in Sanaa to denounce strikes on Yemen and Israel's bombardment of Gaza on Jan. 15, 2025.

Turkey, Pakistan to deploy forces to Saudi Arabia amid Houthi attacks

Turkish, Saudi and Pakistani officials agreed to bolster military cooperation under the Mecca defense pact as Houthi attacks and fighting in Yemen intensify.

This general view shows the site of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, Ethiopia, on February 19, 2022. - Ethiopia's massive hydro-electric dam project on a tributary of the Nile has raised regional tensions notably with Egypt, which depends on the huge river for 97 percent of its water supply. Government officials said the dam would begin producing electricity on Sunday, more than a decade since work first started. (Photo by Amanuel SILESHI / AFP) (Photo by AMANUEL SILESHI/AFP via Getty Ima

Explainer

Why are Egypt and Ethiopia clashing over Tigray, Somalia and the Nile?

Egypt expelled an official at the Ethiopian Embassy in Cairo on Thursday following a similar move by Ethiopia that same day, in the latest sign of tensions between the neighboring African countries.

The Hellenic Navy Roussen or Super Vita class Fast Missile Patrol Boat P 71 HS Ritsos patrols off the tiny Greek island of Kastellorizo (Megisti), in the Dodecanese, the furthest south eastern Greek Island, 2 kilometers from the Turkish mainland, on Aug. 28, 2020.

Turkey-Greece cable dispute hits impasse as Ankara insists on prior coordination

Turkey and Greece are increasingly at an impasse over the Great Sea Interconnector project, which aims to link the power grids of Greece and Cyprus and eventually Israel.

Latest News

Analysis

As Iran’s grip on Hormuz weakens, what leverage does Tehran have left?

A woman crosses a street near a giant billboard erected on the facade of a building depicting a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps placing his foot on a US sea drone, reportedly seized by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, in Vanak Square in Tehran, on Sept. 24, 2026.

A correspondent in Tehran

By A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

Iran’s IRGC slams Trump as Ghalibaf threatens oil infrastructure

Ghalibaf

New US aircraft carrier heads to Middle East as Iran war stretches on

In this handout released by the US Navy on July 15, 2010, the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) transits the Pacific Ocean.

Turkey's FM in UAE to discuss Yemen war, Hormuz closure: What to know

UAE President His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (R) received His Excellency Hakan Fidan, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey (L), in Abu Dhabi on Sept. 28, 2026.

Turkey's servicemen stand at attention on a Turkish submarine as they participate in the live-fire phase of the Blue Homeland 2026 tactical military exercises in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, in Antalya on April 9, 2026.

Turkey to begin surveys for planned northern Cyprus gas pipeline

The planned 63-mile link is intended to supply gas for electricity generation but has drawn condemnation from the Republic of Cyprus amid rising rivalries in the eastern Mediterranean.

Hegset

Iran war to cost US $37.5B by end of September, Hegseth tells Senate

Pentagon’s conservative estimate includes military pay and "operations and maintenance" costs, but does not factor in damage to military bases in the region.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, president of Turkey, greets Donald Trump, president of United States, during a welcome ceremony of allied heads of state and government, on July 8, 2026, in Ankara, Turkey.

Analysis

As Turkey eyes US naval revival, here is why big warship deals are unlikely

Turkey's shipbuilding industry could help ease pressure on overstretched US naval yards, though political, technological and financial hurdles make support work more likely than building major US warships.

Barin Kayaoglu

By Barin Kayaoglu

In Ankara, reporting on geopolitics and national security

China Oman mtg

Analysis

As US ties fray, top Oman official visits China: What to know

For Oman, recalibrating its ties with Washington after the Iran war means diversifying its partnerships — leaning more on European allies like France and deepening its relationship with China.

Joyce Karam

By Joyce Karam , Rosaleen Carroll

A ship sails off the coast of Ajman on July 10, 2026.

Interview

Why Strait of Hormuz no longer rattles oil markets as much: IMF

The fund's Middle East director, Jihad Azour, told Al-Monitor that the big Gulf energy producers now have more capacity to absorb the shock.

Jihad Azour

Jihad Azour

Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund

Analysis

As Trump prioritizes Hormuz, Israel fears Iran rebuilding nuclear program while preserving ballistic missile threat

Israel is worried that the United States is centering the Strait of Hormuz, deprioritizing the threat of a nuclear Iran.

In Tel Aviv, reporting on national security, Israeli politics, defense

The Liberian-flagged container vessel MSC Reef is seen docked along a pier at the Khor Fakkan Container Terminal, the only natural deep-sea port in the region and one of the major container ports in Sharjah Emirate, along the Gulf of Oman, on June 28, 2026.

Explainer

Trump’s Hormuz playbook echoes Iran’s attempts to monetize waterway

On Monday, Trump declared that the United States would become the "guardian" of the strategic waterway, reimpose a blockade on Iranian shipping and seek reimbursement equivalent to 20% of all cargo transiting the strait.

Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler and his Egyptian counterpart, Lt. Gen. Ashraf Salem Zaher, met at the Turkey’s Defense Ministry in Ankara, July 13, 2026.

Turkey, Egypt expand military ties with cooperation frameworks: What to know

Increasing defense cooperation between Ankara and Cairo comes as Turkey seeks to offset the expanding Greek-Cypriot-Israeli alignment in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Iranian NOPO special police officers stand guard in front of a large portrait of Iran's late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at Valiasr square on July 3, 2026, in Tehran, Iran.

Analysis

As Trump declares deal 'over,' IRGC takes lead in shaping Iran's response

While President Donald Trump has declared the US-Iran memorandum over, Tehran's response suggests it is recalibrating — not abandoning — its strategy as military pressure increasingly eclipses diplomacy.

A correspondent in Tehran

By A correspondent in Tehran

In Tehran, reporting on politics

A picture taken on March 12, 2017, shows an Iranian tanker docking at the platform of the oil facility in the Khark Island, on the shore of the Gulf.

US revokes Iran oil waiver after Hormuz attacks

The United States had issued the two-month sanctions waiver as part of its preliminary deal with Iran.

A general view shows docked ships at the harbor of the Sudanese city of Port Sudan, on April 27, 2021.

Sudan, China ink memorandum to develop seaports: What to know

The deal comes as Sudan seeks to revive its maritime sector and revitalize its Red Sea ports.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivers a speech after a signing ceremony with Libyan Government of National Unity prime minister at the Presidential Complex in Ankara, on April 12, 2021.

Analysis

In Libya, maritime dispute could complicate Turkey’s backing of US unity push

Turkey and the US increasingly share an interest in stabilizing Libya through a Tripoli-Benghazi power-sharing deal, though their alignment may hinge on the durability of any such deal and Washington's stance on Ankara's disputed 2019 maritime agreement.

Barin Kayaoglu

By Barin Kayaoglu

In Ankara, reporting on geopolitics and national security